NBA Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-06-05.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Oklahoma City ThunderOKC	64-17	64.0(64–64)	85.7%
2	San Antonio SpursSA	62-19	63.4(62–67)	14.3%
3	Detroit PistonsDET	59-22	59.0(59–59)	0.0%
4	New York KnicksNY	53-28	56.6(53–58)	0.0%
5	Boston CelticsBOS	55-26	55.0(55–55)	0.0%
6	Denver NuggetsDEN	53-28	53.0(53–53)	0.0%
7	Los Angeles LakersLAL	52-29	52.0(52–52)	0.0%
8	Cleveland CavaliersCLE	51-30	51.0(51–51)	0.0%
9	Houston RocketsHOU	51-30	51.0(51–51)	0.0%
10	Minnesota TimberwolvesMIN	48-33	48.0(48–48)	0.0%
11	Atlanta HawksATL	46-35	46.0(46–46)	0.0%
12	Toronto RaptorsTOR	45-36	45.0(45–45)	0.0%
13	Orlando MagicORL	45-36	45.0(45–45)	0.0%
14	Philadelphia 76ersPHI	44-37	44.0(44–44)	0.0%
15	Phoenix SunsPHX	44-37	44.0(44–44)	0.0%
16	Charlotte HornetsCHA	43-38	43.0(43–43)	0.0%
17	Miami HeatMIA	42-39	42.0(42–42)	0.0%
18	Portland Trail BlazersPOR	41-40	41.0(41–41)	0.0%
19	LA ClippersLAC	41-40	41.0(41–41)	0.0%
20	Golden State WarriorsGS	37-44	37.0(37–37)	0.0%
21	Milwaukee BucksMIL	32-49	32.0(32–32)	0.0%
22	Chicago BullsCHI	31-50	31.0(31–31)	0.0%
23	New Orleans PelicansNO	26-55	26.0(26–26)	0.0%
24	Memphis GrizzliesMEM	25-56	25.0(25–25)	0.0%
25	Dallas MavericksDAL	25-56	25.0(25–25)	0.0%
26	Sacramento KingsSAC	22-59	22.0(22–22)	0.0%
27	Utah JazzUTAH	22-59	22.0(22–22)	0.0%
28	Brooklyn NetsBKN	20-61	20.0(20–20)	0.0%
29	Indiana PacersIND	19-62	19.0(19–19)	0.0%
30	Washington WizardsWSH	17-64	17.0(17–17)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

NBA power rankings Standings