MLB Projected Standings & Title Odds

We simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times— playing out every remaining game with the model's win probabilities — to project each team's final record and its odds of finishing with the league's best record. Last run 2026-06-04.

#	Team	Now	Proj. wins	Best-record odds
1	Atlanta BravesATL	42-20	94.0(75–112)	35.0%
2	Los Angeles DodgersLAD	40-22	92.8(75–109)	23.5%
3	Milwaukee BrewersMIL	37-23	91.9(74–108)	17.5%
4	New York YankeesNYY	37-25	89.1(70–108)	8.6%
5	Tampa Bay RaysTB	36-23	87.5(68–105)	5.3%
6	Cleveland GuardiansCLE	36-28	86.5(69–104)	3.1%
7	Philadelphia PhilliesPHI	33-29	84.9(66–102)	1.4%
8	Seattle MarinersSEA	33-30	84.2(65–104)	1.1%
9	San Diego PadresSD	32-29	82.9(64–103)	0.7%
10	Chicago CubsCHC	32-30	82.8(62–101)	0.7%
11	St. Louis CardinalsSTL	32-28	83.0(64–102)	0.6%
12	Pittsburgh PiratesPIT	33-29	82.5(63–101)	0.5%
13	Arizona DiamondbacksAZ	32-29	82.3(64–102)	0.5%
14	Chicago White SoxCWS	33-29	81.5(63–101)	0.4%
15	Texas RangersTEX	30-32	80.6(60–100)	0.3%
16	Cincinnati RedsCIN	31-30	81.0(62–100)	0.2%
17	AthleticsATH	30-31	80.1(61–100)	0.2%
18	Toronto Blue JaysTOR	29-33	79.4(61–98)	0.1%
19	Washington NationalsWSH	31-32	78.5(60–98)	0.1%
20	Baltimore OriolesBAL	30-33	78.5(59–97)	0.1%
21	Miami MarlinsMIA	29-34	78.0(58–98)	0.0%
22	Houston AstrosHOU	28-35	77.8(60–96)	0.0%
23	Minnesota TwinsMIN	29-34	77.4(55–97)	0.0%
24	Boston Red SoxBOS	26-35	77.4(61–97)	0.0%
25	New York MetsNYM	27-35	76.2(57–95)	0.0%
26	Detroit TigersDET	25-38	74.9(56–98)	0.0%
27	San Francisco GiantsSF	25-38	74.3(57–92)	0.0%
28	Kansas City RoyalsKC	24-38	73.8(53–92)	0.0%
29	Los Angeles AngelsLAA	24-39	70.9(52–88)	0.0%
30	Colorado RockiesCOL	24-39	66.5(45–85)	0.0%

How the projection works

Starting from today's standings, the engine plays out every remaining game 10,000 times. Each game is decided by a coin flip weighted to the model's win probability for that matchup, so a 60% favorite wins ~60% of the simulations. Tallying the outcomes gives a projected win total (with a realistic range) and the share of simulations in which each team finishes with the best record — a clean, bias-free read on the title race.

MLB power rankings Standings